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- $OP Optimism - Unlock Tomorrow! (30th May 2023)
$OP Optimism - Unlock Tomorrow! (30th May 2023)
Useful info for trading $OP unlock
Hello anon,
On 30th May 2023, Optimism ($OP) will unlock ~387k tokens (worth ~$600m) related to team and investors allocation
This will be a sizable unlock and will be the first unlocks date for both team and investors. Investors are currently up ~6x on their investment on average
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🔓HOW $OP VESTING SCHEDULE IS STRUCTURED
Unlock structure is linear for Community, Investors and Team
Community allocation started unlocking at launch (1 year ago)
On 30th May 2023, Team and investors will have a sizable cliff unlock for a total of ~387k tokens (worth ~$600m), and then $OP will start unlocking linearly at ~1.5% of total supply per month
Supply will be fully circulating on 30th May 2026
As a reminder, token allocations which will be involved in the unlock are the following
📈WILL THE UNLOCK IMPACT TOKEN PRICE?
There are several factors to take into account
1] TRADING VOLUME IS RELATIVELY SMALL COMPARED TO UNLOCK SIZE
Daily volume is around ~$70m, with Binance and CoinDCX collecting $24m daily each
As a reminder, potential selling pressure at unlock day in May 2023 at current prices is ~$600m
Unlikely that there will be $400-600m demand to sustain the amount that will be unlocked
Market depth is thin as well: a $500k dump causes -2% price movement on both Binance and CoinDCX
Source: Coingecko
Volume has been drying up as well recently: you can see current levels compared to Jan-23 / Feb-23 in the chart below
Source: Coingecko
2] DOES FULLY DILUTED VALUATION (FDV) MAKES SENSE?
Fully diluted valuation is currently at $6.6bn, or 50% smaller of main comp Arbitrum (whose FDV is $12.2bn)
$OP annualised revenue is $11.2m
Main comp Arbitrum has $11.3m annualised revenue
$OP FDV / Revenue: ~590x vs. $ARB FDV / Revenue: ~1,000x
$OP seems currently way undervalued compared to $ARB
Still, FDV to sales ratio is very high and likely not incredibly meaningful as the protocols are still in a growth phase
Looking at FDV / TVL multiple, which might be more meaningful
$OP TVL is currently $900m, while $ARB FDV is $2.3bn
This implied $OP FDV / TVL = 5.3x vs. $ARB FDV / TVL = 7.3x
TL,DR: $OP seems overvalued compared to $ARB is we use this multiples approach
3] ARE $OP FINANCIALS SOLID?
Revenue has been growing significantly in the last 90-180 days
Net income has been mostly negative or zero during whole project life
4] WILL CURRENT INVESTORS DUMP?
Investors of $OP include Paradigm, IDEO CoLab Ventures and Andreessen Horowitz (a16z)
Their average purchase price should be around $0.2445
Their investment is currently up ~6x on average: some of them might be interested in derisking their positions
👀TL;DR
Unlock is very sizable: one of the biggest of the year among major tokens
Selling pressure will likely be big compared to current volume
Token seems overvalued vs. main comp using FDV / TVL ratio, even though it seems undervalued vs. main comp using FDV / Revenue ratio
Protocol is not ready to produce consistent revenue and profit yet
Investors have incentive to dump as they are up 6x on their investment on averate
We expect a negative impact on $OP price after the unlock