1INCH - Dump incoming?

Assessing 1INCH's unlock dump potential

December 08, 2022

Bullish unlock? Or a massive amount of sell pressure on 1INCH?

Here a deep dive analysis into how much pain is coming on 1INCH upcoming unlock.

UNLOCK SIZE:

  • 13% of tot. supply will be unlocked around 25 December (merry xmas!) as per data from company website here

  • 200mln tokens will be unlocked, representing potential $80m selling pressure at current prices

  • This will bring circ. supply from 44% to 57%

  • Unlock seems sizable, but let’s analyze in the other paragraph dump potential and mitigants

DUMP POTENTIAL:

  • Size seems big, and unlock is semetral: i.e., investors have gone through recent market turmoil without ability to sell

  • Volume is pretty low on most of CEXs (less then $3m per day), therefore potential €80m selling pressure should not work well for token price

  • Both Alameda and Celsius invested BIG in the $175mln Serie B round

    • They will be forced to dispose their allocation due to bankruptcy law, and this will cause significant selling pressure on the token

    • Bankruptcy Trustees are desperate to liquidate assets to repay creditors as much as possible

  • FTX ventures invested in the Seed Round as well (smaller amount as the round was only $2.8mln)

    • This allocation will be disposed for sure as well

 MITIGANTS TO THE DUMP:

  • Chart looks pretty bottomed, and not sure if some of the investors are willing to sell their underwater bags

  • The information on seed / private entry prices are not available unfortunately

  • Think airdrop issue price was was around $1.5 (currently trading at 0.44$)

  • Recent narrative regarding the importance of DEXs in crypto vs. CEXs, given FTX disaster, should help the token price.

    • Looking at comps such as Uniswap, Sushi, this havent translated yet in nice price action after FTX collapse

    • However, in the medium-long period, the narrative could help

 EXTRA:

  • If interested to an excel database with future and past unlock dates of other 150 coins, feel free to reply to this email

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