14th June - BLUR unlock

Hello anon,

Tomorrow 14th of June, i.e. 4 months after Feb-23 airdrop, BLUR will unlock ~195m tokens 

🔓 UNLOCK DETAILS

• As a reminder, BLUR airdropped 360m tokens on 14th February 2023

• The Jun-23 unlock will involve ~195m tokens split among

  • Contributors: ~115m

  • Investors: ~75m

  • Advisors: ~5m

• This will increase total supply by 6%

• Will increase circulating supply (market cap) by 30%

• This will represent ~$60m potential selling pressure

• Something worth noticing is that insiders allocation represents ~51% of total allocation - not optimal!

📉 HOW WILL THE UNLOCK IMPACT TOKEN PRICE?

There are few factors to consider when assessing if the unlock will be bullish or bearish

1) Are seed / private sale investors up with their investment?

• On 28th March 2022, BLUR received $11m seed round led by Paradigm

  • Not clear the valuation of BLUR at this round

  • Seems reasonable that valuation was below $1bn (see next paragraph on follow up funding round): the investors below are currently in profit and might represent selling pressure at unlock

• In February 2023, BLUR raised funds again, at $1bn valuation

  • These investors are currently down with their investment, might not willing to sell at unlock

2) Does the team have incentives to dump their unlocked tokens?

• Seems unlikely that the team will dump their allocation at this stage

• Team is composed by amazing builders that have demonstrated to be able to jeopardize Opensea position

• They also have been very successful in their first decisions / moves (see paragraph #3

3) Are “financials” solid?

• Excluding Feb-23 mania, BLUR Volume has been consistently more than 2x Opensea volume since February

• BLUR lending also has $39m TVL - not bad

• Revenue is zero currently, but governance can trigger 2.5% fees

4) Does valuation make sense?

• Yes - BLUR seems undervalued

• Using a 25% discount to current annualised volume ($4.4bn) and assuming conservative 1% fee, revenue can be assumed to be €33m per year

• FDV is currently $931m

• FDV / Rev = 28x

  • Valuation does not seem crazy and resembles that of traditional finance companies

• Opensea current valuation is $3bn and it generates $28m annualised revenue: i.e. FDV / Rev = 107x !!!

5) Price action

• Price already retraced -40% due to Coinbase / Binance FUD last weekend

• Short sellers expecting BLUR unlock had their chance to take profit before the event due to exogenous causes

6) BLUR season 2

• When assessing BLUR pricing, need to keep in mind that a 300m token airdrop is coming (as per BLUR season 2)

• Timing is uncertain, but will likely happen around October 2023

📝TL;DR

• Unlock is sizable

• Among investors, only seed investors might have incentive to dump

• BLUR seems undervalued compared to Opensea

• “Financials” seem solid, especially in terms of volume and lending TVL

• Price already retraced -40% last weekend and short sellers had their chance to take profit

• Main future negative catalyst (season 2 airdrop) is far, and might provide incentives to activity on the project in the meantime

• We do not expect a dump 

🔥Recommended link 🔥