14th June - BLUR unlock
Tomorrow 14th of June, i.e. 4 months after Feb-23 airdrop, BLUR will unlock ~195m tokens
🔓 UNLOCK DETAILS
As a reminder, BLUR airdropped 360m tokens on 14th February 2023
The Jun-23 unlock will involve ~195m tokens split among
This will increase total supply by 6%
Will increase circulating supply (market cap) by 30%
This will represent ~$60m potential selling pressure
BLUR vesting schedule
Something worth noticing is that insiders allocation represents ~51% of total allocation - not optimal!
📉 HOW WILL THE UNLOCK IMPACT TOKEN PRICE?
There are few factors to consider when assessing if the unlock will be bullish or bearish
1) Are seed / private sale investors up with their investment?
On 28th March 2022, BLUR received $11m seed round led by Paradigm
Not clear the valuation of BLUR at this round
Seems reasonable that valuation was below $1bn (see next paragraph on follow up funding round): the investors below are currently in profit and might represent selling pressure at unlock
Seed round investors
In February 2023, BLUR raised funds again, at $1bn valuation
These investors are currently down with their investment, might not willing to sell at unlock
Follow up investment round
2) Does the team have incentives to dump their unlocked tokens?
Seems unlikely that the team will dump their allocation at this stage
Team is composed by amazing builders that have demonstrated to be able to jeopardize Opensea position
They also have been very successful in their first decisions / moves (see paragraph #3
3) Are “financials” solid?
Excluding Feb-23 mania, BLUR Volume has been consistently more than 2x Opensea volume since February
BLUR volume vs. Opensea volume
BLUR lending also has $39m TVL - not bad
BLUR lending TVL
Revenue is zero currently, but governance can trigger 2.5% fees
BLUR revenue is zero
4) Does valuation make sense?
Yes - BLUR seems undervalued
Using a 25% discount to current annualised volume ($4.4bn) and assuming conservative 1% fee, revenue can be assumed to be €33m per year
FDV is currently $931m
FDV / Rev = 28x
Valuation does not seem crazy and resembles that of traditional finance companies
Opensea current valuation is $3bn and it generates $28m annualised revenue: i.e. FDV / Rev = 107x !!!
5) Price action
Price already retraced -40% due to Coinbase / Binance FUD last weekend
Short sellers expecting BLUR unlock had their chance to take profit before the event due to exogenous causes
BLUR price action
6) BLUR season 2
When assessing BLUR pricing, need to keep in mind that a 300m token airdrop is coming (as per BLUR season 2)
300M+ BLUR will be distributed to the community in Season 2.
What’s the secret to maximizing rewards? Loyalty.
Users with 100% loyalty have the highest chances of Mythical Care Packages, which are worth 100x Uncommon Care Packages.
Here are 3 ways to maximize your loyalty👇
— Blur (@blur_io)
Feb 21, 2023
Timing is uncertain, but will likely happen around October 2023
Season 2 may potentially run until October 2023. As the 300M $BLUR is from the community treasury, and 468M is vested over the first year, calculations indicate that it will take ~8 months to obtain the 300M for the second airdrop.
— An Ape's Prologue (@apes_prologue)
May 4, 2023
Unlock is sizable
Among investors, only seed investors might have incentive to dump
BLUR seems undervalued compared to Opensea
“Financials” seem solid, especially in terms of volume and lending TVL
Price already retraced -40% last weekend and short sellers had their chance to take profit
Main future negative catalyst (season 2 airdrop) is far, and might provide incentives to activity on the project in the meantime
We do not expect a dump
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